Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b12…a77e crypto 923 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 182d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,944 (+2%) realized +$4,916 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%848W / 70L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 183d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$2,058
other 4% −$187
sports 2% +$41
finance 1% +$168
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.1% -12.3% 92% 8% -14.1%
≤30d 89 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 15% -9.3%
≤90d 189 +1.3% -8.3% 95% 10% -8.3%
all 918 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 6% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -8.6%
10% -18.4% 2% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$75 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized+$4,916
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses848 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)918 / 923
History coverage183d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $450 $465 +$15 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? No 95¢ 99¢ $115 $119 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 78¢ 82¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+88%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET Jun 18 $401 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$9 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$18 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $265 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $337 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $401 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $152 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $505 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $108 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $500 +$5 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $126 +$9 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $452 +$18 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $107 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$11 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $944 −$613 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $439 +$63 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $756 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $256 +$8 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 14 $205 +$21 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 14 $103 +$19 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $403 +$30 +8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $196 −$196 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $209 +$9 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $204 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $401 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $226 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $456 +$13 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $120 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $125 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,159 +$167 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 07 $748 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $98 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $100 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $337 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $117 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.23 · official $639.27 (match) · 3500 history records