Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b11…de93 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$756 (-13%) realized −$698 · open −$58
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days−$412
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$823
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +38.9% +25.7% 100% 100% +25.7%
≤30d 5 +31.5% +19.0% 80% 80% +1.8%
≤90d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 64% 64% -17.2%
all 30 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 57% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 57% -22.1%
10% -21.1% 50% -29.5%
15% -28.7% 37% -36.3%
20% -35.7% 27% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$189 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$698
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage179d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Antoine Ghibaudo 25¢ 12¢ $108 $49 −$58 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 21 $135 +$53 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 11 $657 −$650 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $515 +$185 +36%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $362 +$88 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 31 $366 +$579 +158%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 16 $247 +$53 +21%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $215 −$210 -98%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 03 $147 +$70 +48%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $429 −$426 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 23 $428 $0 -0%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 23 $116 +$33 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 02 $144 −$140 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Apr 02 $16 +$4 +22%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 02 $114 +$36 +31%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Mar 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Bruins vs. Devils Mar 18 $196 +$174 +89%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 12 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 07 $90 +$90 +100%
Islanders vs. Sharks Mar 07 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 27 $50 +$27 +54%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 20 $72 +$50 +70%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 11 $80 −$80 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Feb 06 $23 +$8 +33%
Pistons vs. Lakers Feb 06 $39 +$32 +82%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Shifters (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Feb 06 $50 +$50 +100%
Spurs vs. Hornets Feb 06 $100 +$157 +156%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 25¢ $8 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 25¢ $102 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $22 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $11 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $103 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $657 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Spirit 73¢ $515 14d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 80¢ $362 21d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 38¢ $366 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $247 41d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 28¢ $14 49d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 28¢ $200 49d
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers BUY Spurs 67¢ $147 56d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $429 59d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $428 59d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $116 61d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $428 67d
Cavaliers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 20¢ $144 80d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Michigan Wolverines 76¢ $114 84d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY Team Falcons 82¢ $16 95d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Clippers 46¢ $46 95d
Clippers vs. Pelicans BUY Clippers 46¢ $184 95d
Bruins vs. Devils BUY Devils 53¢ $196 97d
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 35¢ $419 100d
Islanders vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 45¢ $65 106d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 BUY Liquid 50¢ $90 108d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 28¢ $88 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 65¢ $50 117d
Jazz vs. Grizzlies BUY Jazz 50¢ $61 120d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 59¢ $72 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.45 · official $49.45 (match) · 55 history records