Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b0f…ae5e politics 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,191 (+0%) realized +$1,191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate19%37W / 161L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,349per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$33
14 days−$62
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$157
other 36% −$317
sports 8% +$1,624
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$11
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 120 +0.6% -9.0% 8% 4% -9.0%
all 198 +1.6% -8.1% 19% 12% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 12% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 12% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 10% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,762) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$8 · ×8.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized+$1,191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses37 / 161
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)198 / 200
History coverage160d
Avg bet$1,349
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $637 $637 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $168 $168 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,962 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,515 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7,661 −$10 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,046 −$6 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,627 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4,535 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,650 −$3 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $156 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,949 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,330 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,618 −$3 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,689 −$4 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $74 +$104 +140%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,305 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $4,937 −$7 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,323 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,625 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $318 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 02 $587 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,422 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,846 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $4,543 −$7 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $1,832 −$3 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $418 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $1,696 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,183 −$4 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,877 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $168 44m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $637 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $688 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $689 3h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $647 6h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $648 7h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $892 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $893 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $879 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $881 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $909 4d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $910 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,261 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $847 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $848 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,072 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,073 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,315 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,317 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,325 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,327 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,326 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,328 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.65 · official $804.65 (match) · 692 history records