Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b0f…a3a6 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$6
other 18% −$2
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.1% -14.2% 30% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 18 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 6% -8.8%
all 45 -2.5% -11.8% 42% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 2% -9.1%
10% -20.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage446d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $49 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $49 +$3 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $76 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $71 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $16 +$2 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -2%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 04 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,700 on June 3? Jun 02 $9 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $7 $0 +4%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will Oliver Bearman finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 26 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 09 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $23 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 31 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $44 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $26 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $19 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $45 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $49 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 14h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $31 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No $0 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $50 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $0 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records