Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b0e…68cf other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$17
politics 33% −$12
sports 7% −$2
tech 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 +0.4% -9.2% 3% 3% -9.7%
all 116 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage115d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $182 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $176 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $431 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $432 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $373 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $439 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $238 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $367 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $186 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $214 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $226 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $243 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $225 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $429 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $419 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 7h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $39 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 26h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 32h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 32h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 40h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $36 40h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 10d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 10d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 13d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 13d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 15d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $36 15d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $38 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 365 history records