Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b0d…f2d6 crypto 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$424 (+0%) realized +$433 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%45W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,619per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$27
14 days+$56
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 45 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,543) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3,645
Realized+$433
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses45 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage107d
Avg bet$2,619
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $3,654 $3,645 −$9 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $3,651 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,648 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $3,641 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,628 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3,624 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3,618 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $699 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,304 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,599 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3,585 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $3,579 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $3,565 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? May 28 $3,558 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $3,550 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? May 22 $3,543 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19? May 19 $3,536 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 16 $3,529 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? May 14 $3,517 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 10 $2,406 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? May 08 $2,388 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 04 $2,382 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 02 $2,378 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2,372 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $2,368 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $2,361 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $2,357 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $2,352 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $2,342 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $2,329 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $2,324 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $2,318 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $2,290 +$28 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $2,275 +$15 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $2,270 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $2,259 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $2,212 +$47 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $2,202 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 21? Mar 20 $2,193 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 18 $2,173 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $2,169 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $2,151 +$17 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $2,147 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $2,139 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $3,655 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,651 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3,648 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,641 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,628 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,000 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,624 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $3,618 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $2,304 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,599 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $700 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $600 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $699 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $3,085 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $500 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,579 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $3,565 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,565 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,558 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $3,550 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $3,543 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $3,536 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $3,529 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $618 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,899 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $2,406 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $2,388 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,382 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $2,378 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2,372 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,645.05 · official $3,645.05 (match) · 94 history records