Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b0a…522b sports 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%18W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$4
politics 26% −$3
other 20% −$7
world 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 214 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses18 / 196
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)214 / 214
History coverage172d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 214 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $181 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 18 $39 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 15 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 09 $247 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 08 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 06 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $247 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $308 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $105 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $47 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $46 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $46 5h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $37 11d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $37 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $43 24d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $44 24d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $37 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $37 36d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $36 92d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $36 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 93d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $39 93d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $39 93d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $45 94d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $45 94d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $39 94d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $39 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $37 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 97¢ $37 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 94d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? SELL No 96¢ $49 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $1 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $41 95d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $7 95d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 95d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 95d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $37 95d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $37 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 821 history records