Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b09…ce3c other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+11%) realized +$128 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate85%102W / 18L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$25
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$91
tech 20% +$22
weather 19% −$4
world 12% +$11
sports 8% +$2
politics 3% +$3
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -7.9% -16.7% 71% 43% -9.4%
≤30d 68 +9.0% -1.4% 82% 65% +4.2%
≤90d 120 +10.3% -0.2% 85% 58% +2.4%
all 120 +10.3% -0.2% 85% 58% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 58% +2.4%
10% -9.8% 32% -7.4%
15% -18.5% 19% -16.4%
20% -26.5% 14% -24.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses102 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)120 / 138
History coverage61d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 95¢ $65 $72 +$7 (+11%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 73¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by June 30? No 89¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 33¢ 26¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$1 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $10 +$2 +20%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$5 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 +$3 +64%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $23 +$12 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 78°F or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +16%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $3 +$4 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $12 44h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 22¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $5 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 10¢ $0 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $30 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 19¢ $5 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 6d
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL No 97¢ $14 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $42 8d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 9d
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $5 9d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $5 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.71 · official $224.71 (match) · 267 history records