Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b06…c83c politics 155 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,060 (-1%) realized −$2,060 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,270per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$98
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$143
politics 34% −$79
sports 18% −$1,871
culture 5% −$10
world 2% −$8
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -6.0% -15.0% 10% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 115 -13.7% -21.9% 7% 3% -11.2%
all 153 -1.2% -10.6% 13% 10% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 10% -10.5%
10% -19.1% 10% -19.1%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,817) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$22 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$2,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,270
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $781 $781 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $180 $180 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,813 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,546 −$3 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $6,139 −$6 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $748 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,956 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $747 −$1 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $927 −$2 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,601 −$5 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,291 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $775 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $49 +$58 +119%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $61 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $140 $0 +0%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $58 +$29 +50%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $137 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $471 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $204 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 21 $2,524 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,305 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $258 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $250 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $297 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $356 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $306 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $781 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $732 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $733 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $384 4h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $384 7h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 46h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $686 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $720 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $721 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $762 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $763 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $764 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $653 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $654 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $701 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $702 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $652 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $653 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $653 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $654 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 8d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $675 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $676 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $648 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.84 · official $960.84 (match) · 495 history records