Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6b02…843c other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+7%) realized +$15 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$38
world 38% −$1
economics 9% +$8
tech 2% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.5% -0.9% 100% 50% -1.5%
≤30d 6 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 33% -5.9%
≤90d 6 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 33% -5.9%
all 6 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 33% -5.9%
10% -26.7% 0% -14.9%
15% -33.7% 0% -23.1%
20% -40.2% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 19
History coverage10d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 78¢ $118 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 69¢ $62 $64 +$2 (+3%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 76¢ 86¢ $55 $62 +$8 (+14%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 46¢ 46¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 72¢ $36 $47 +$11 (+31%)
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 55¢ 71¢ $35 $46 +$10 (+30%)
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 63¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+14%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 51¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+9%)
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 48¢ 56¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+16%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 63¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Yoon out of custody before 2027? Jun 26 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 25 $1 $0 +16%
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? Jun 25 $14 +$1 +7%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Jun 25 $71 +$8 +12%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $63 1h
Will Chaos Labs launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 48¢ $20 6h
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 56¢ $13 6h
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 55¢ $1 6h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 6h
Will LI.FI launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY No 54¢ $23 6h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $15 7h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $48 7h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $37 10h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $11 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $3 16h
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $17 16h
Yoon out of custody before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $17 33h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $15 33h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $15 33h
Will Saturn launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $37 34h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 91¢ $1 40h
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 40h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $121 40h
Will Hurupay launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $12 40h
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 40h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 40h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL No 94¢ $18 40h
Yoon out of custody before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $8 3d
Yoon out of custody before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $62 3d
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 49¢ $5 6d
Will OpenAI announce a head-mounted display in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $524.24 · official $524.25 (match) · 51 history records