Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b02…e5fc world 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,500 (-3%) realized −$1,595 · open +$95
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%11W / 52L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$703per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$677
7 days+$392
14 days+$392
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$30
other 10% −$293
crypto 2% −$64
sports 0% +$33
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -33.8% -40.1% 17% 12% -7.0%
≤30d 30 -34.2% -40.4% 13% 10% -9.0%
≤90d 63 -12.4% -20.8% 17% 14% -10.9%
all 63 -12.4% -20.8% 17% 14% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 14% -10.9%
10% -28.4% 11% -19.4%
15% -35.3% 10% -27.2%
20% -41.6% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$649 vs −$145 · ×4.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1,365
Realized−$1,595
Unrealized+$95
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses11 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage75d
Avg bet$703
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $604 $632 +$28 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 5¢ 5¢ $465 $499 +$34 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $186 $222 +$36 (+19%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4,861 +$955 +20%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$43 -22%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $654 −$46 -7%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,749 −$119 -7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $162 −$8 -5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $248 −$24 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,027 +$26 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $763 −$64 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $124 −$54 -43%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $130 −$103 -79%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$33 +82%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,400 −$74 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $70 −$48 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $120 −$72 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $235 −$171 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $260 −$177 -68%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,599 +$543 +34%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 12 $92 −$50 -54%
Will Depay Memphis be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -64%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 −$18 -37%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $14 −$4 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $479 −$193 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $46 −$11 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 25 $45 −$13 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 21 $91 −$37 -40%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $94 −$52 -55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $145 −$136 -94%
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 -34%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 13 $7 −$3 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 08 $18 −$13 -73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 08 $12 $0 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $766 −$650 -85%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 01 $106 −$93 -87%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 29 $1,283 −$1,207 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $684 −$667 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 28 $1,138 −$1,115 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 27 $784 −$483 -62%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $280 −$280 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 −$88 -88%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $148 −$31 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $183 −$117 -64%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $432 +$15 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $22 −$8 -35%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $49 −$9 -19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 17 $47 −$21 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $10 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $41 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $6 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,364.80 · official $1,364.80 (match) · 1257 history records