Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b01…0457 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$2
other 16% $0
weather 4% −$3
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 21% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 21% 0% -9.9%
all 32 -0.6% -10.1% 41% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $68 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $4 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 11 $7 $0 -0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $3 $0 -4%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 14? Mar 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on March 5? Mar 04 $14 −$3 -22%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $8 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $34 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $25 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 65¢ $34 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.85 · official $32.78 (match) · 99 history records