Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aff…a7ac crypto 530 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%275W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$17
sports 16% −$9
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 33% -10.6%
≤30d 494 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 49% -12.1%
≤90d 494 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 49% -12.1%
all 530 -5.3% -14.3% 52% 47% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 47% -12.9%
10% -22.5% 46% -21.3%
15% -30.0% 46% -28.9%
20% -36.9% 46% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses275 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)530 / 530
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 530 Trades
no open positions (249 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records