Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6afd…1d01 weather 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%87W / 1L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$39
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 88 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 88 +0.3% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×366.05 per $1 lost it wins $366.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses87 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage78d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $93 $92 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $119 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $145 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? May 30 $145 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 28? May 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 28? May 29 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 26? May 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on May 18? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on May 18? May 20 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on May 16? May 15 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 3? May 03 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on May 2? May 02 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 29? Apr 29 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on April 29 Apr 29 $143 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 28? Apr 28 $921 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 28? Apr 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on April 27 Apr 27 $371 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $326 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $680 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 27? Apr 27 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C on April 27? Apr 27 $589 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $365 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on April 27? Apr 26 $594 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 25? Apr 25 $364 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 25? Apr 25 $217 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $54 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $93 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 9°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $93 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $54 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $65 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $92 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $54 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $80 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $146 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $145 10d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $119 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $102 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $112 13d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $145 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $145 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $145 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $59 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $85 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $115 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.81 · official $146.81 (match) · 219 history records