Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6A 0x6afa…4fc0 crypto 417 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%19W / 398L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$7
other 24% −$10
weather 12% −$7
politics 9% −$3
tech 8% −$3
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 88 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 369 +0.5% -9.0% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 417 +0.2% -9.4% 5% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×8.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses19 / 398
Open positions0
Markets (closed)417 / 417
History coverage94d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 417 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 7? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C or below on June 1? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 1? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 31? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $66 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 59°F or below on May 31? May 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 31? May 30 $66 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 31? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 31? May 30 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $62 6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $63 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $63 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $63 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 12d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 953 history records