Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6afa…e227 sports 437 markets active 2d ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+1%) realized +$162 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%243W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$478
14 days−$1,344
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$319
other 19% +$225
crypto 1% −$21
world 1% +$86
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.2% -33.3% 40% 40% -40.4%
≤30d 229 +21.3% +9.8% 52% 52% -14.9%
≤90d 437 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 54% -10.8%
all 437 +13.6% +2.8% 56% 54% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 54% -10.8%
10% -7.0% 52% -19.3%
15% -16.0% 49% -27.1%
20% -24.2% 39% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$61 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses243 / 194
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions0
Markets (closed)437 / 437
History coverage51d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 437 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $51 +$43 +84%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $51 +$29 +58%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$66 +130%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $51 +$36 +71%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $51 −$41 -81%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $81 −$80 -98%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $101 +$77 +76%
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $81 +$35 +44%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 08 $81 +$70 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $81 +$63 +78%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $81 −$57 -70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $81 −$80 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $101 +$53 +52%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $81 −$80 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $82 −$80 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $81 +$67 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $81 −$80 -98%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $81 +$52 +65%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $81 +$67 +83%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $101 −$18 -18%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $101 +$53 +52%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $81 +$50 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 60¢ $51 42h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $102 44h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $51 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $102 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $101 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 63¢ $51 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 22¢ $102 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $108 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 64¢ $51 5d
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw BUY Pedro Martinez 22¢ $102 5d
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas BUY Miguel Damas 31¢ $51 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $51 6d
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 69¢ $50 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $102 6d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 58¢ $51 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs $10 7d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 40¢ $51 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $81 8d
Ilkley: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 64¢ $81 8d
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 52¢ $81 8d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 39¢ $102 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Liudmila Samsonova 60¢ $81 8d
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 62¢ $81 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.42 · official $450.88 (match) · 734 history records