Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6af6…f77b crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-3%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -31.1% -37.6% 44% 33% -35.2%
≤30d 9 -31.1% -37.6% 44% 33% -35.2%
≤90d 9 -31.1% -37.6% 44% 33% -35.2%
all 9 -31.1% -37.6% 44% 33% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 33% -35.2%
10% -43.6% 33% -41.4%
15% -49.1% 33% -47.1%
20% -54.0% 22% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$29 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$54 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$27 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records