Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:02:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6A 0x6af5…db2d crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+5%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$4
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 38% -5.7%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 38% -5.7%
≤90d 13 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 38% -5.7%
all 13 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 38% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.6% 38% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.9% 31% -14.7%
15% -20.4% 31% -22.9%
20% -28.2% 15% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records