Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:57:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6A 0x6af4…437a crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized −$1 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$100
sports 28% +$4
other 22% +$5
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +18.2% +6.9% 47% 47% +27.8%
≤30d 32 +18.2% +6.9% 47% 47% +27.8%
≤90d 32 +18.2% +6.9% 47% 47% +27.8%
all 32 +18.2% +6.9% 47% 47% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.9% 47% +27.8%
10% -3.3% 47% +15.5%
15% -12.7% 44% +4.4%
20% -21.2% 41% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+23%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$12 +117%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$38 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$11 +211%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $6 +$14 +226%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will BUY 33¢ $5 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw BUY 21¢ $5 30h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 14¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 32¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $5 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 27¢ $5 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.59 · official $31.59 (match) · 63 history records