Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aec…7aeb crypto 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (179 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$332 (+9%) realized +$332 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%85W / 95L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day179.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (179 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 47% -2.3%
≤30d 180 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 47% -2.3%
≤90d 180 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 47% -2.3%
all 180 +1.9% -7.8% 47% 47% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover179.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 47% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -11.7%
15% -24.6% 47% -20.2%
20% -32.0% 47% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$332
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses85 / 95
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day179.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$32 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $86 −$83 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$33 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 +$13 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $23 +$37 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $82 +$98 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$41 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$17 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$45 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$57 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $45 +$45 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$15 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$58 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $82 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records