Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6aeb…2b0b sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$210 (-15%) realized −$210 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$137
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$62
other 11% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +27.4% +15.3% 60% 60% +22.6%
≤30d 16 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -6.5%
≤90d 16 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -6.5%
all 16 +10.1% -0.4% 62% 62% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 62% -6.5%
10% -9.9% 56% -15.5%
15% -18.6% 56% -23.6%
20% -26.6% 38% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$94 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage14d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $137 +$180 +132%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $52 +$85 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 +$20 +40%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $49 −$49 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $70 −$69 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $53 +$68 +128%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $178 −$176 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $126 +$52 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $141 +$85 +60%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $124 +$16 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $89 +$36 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 11 $49 +$40 +83%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 Jun 09 $49 +$29 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $137 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $136 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $52 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $102 35h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $49 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $70 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $70 7d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $50 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $121 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $121 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 43¢ $53 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $178 9d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Under 70¢ $126 10d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $141 10d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $124 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $125 11d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $89 11d
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 54¢ $49 12d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 BUY No 48¢ $51 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 SELL Under 99¢ $78 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5 BUY Under 62¢ $49 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records