Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ae9…14fe
other · 588 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$85
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses320 / 231
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions36
Markets (closed)551 / 588
History coverage38d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day43.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 36 History 551 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$35
14 days+$37
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 43¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 15? No 33¢ 43¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 74¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? No 59¢ 73¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 15¢ 18¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? No 74¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 70¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 58¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 61¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 55¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 64¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 63¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 71¢ 56¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 45¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 45¢ 42¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 63¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 56¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 59¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 77¢ 43¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? Jun 12 $3 $0 -3%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 $0 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +15%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $3 −$1 -44%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$3 +34%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +36%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +35%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $3 $0 -3%
Will Oro launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +28%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +31%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -8%
ITF Los Angeles: Matic Kriznik vs Miles Jones Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 10 $3 $0 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Kroger (KR) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -40%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 10 $1 +$1 +100%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 13? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +54%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ethereal launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 09 $3 +$3 +94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$36
world 15% +$39
crypto 15% −$25
politics 13% +$3
tech 11% +$18
finance 4% +$6
culture 2% −$13
sports 2% −$1
economics 0% −$2
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $4 58m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $4 58m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 61¢ $3 58m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 62¢ $3 58m
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? SELL No 67¢ $3 58m
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 39¢ $2 59m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? SELL No 90¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 53¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 72¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $4 1h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 39¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Canada? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? SELL No 78¢ $4 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +4.3% -5.7% 62% 59% -3.0%
≤30d 489 +1.5% -8.2% 60% 55% -8.2%
≤90d 551 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 52% -9.5%
all 551 -0.1% -9.6% 58% 52% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 52% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 33% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 17% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.14 · official $84.31 (match) · 1649 history records