Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae8…b90a politics 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,961 (-30%) realized −$6,948 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%17W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day114.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% −$878
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (115 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -8.0% -16.7% 8% 0% -13.9%
≤30d 454 -8.6% -17.3% 4% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 454 -8.6% -17.3% 4% 0% -13.3%
all 454 -8.6% -17.3% 4% 0% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 0% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 0% -21.6%
15% -32.5% 0% -29.2%
20% -39.1% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$6,948
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses17 / 437
Open positions7
Markets (closed)454 / 448
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day114.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? No 31¢ 25¢ $31 $25 −$6 (-19%)
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-04 House seat? No 16¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? No 21¢ 16¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-26%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-07 House seat? No 18¢ 11¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Republican Party win the MD-04 House seat? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $38 $0 +1%
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $11 $0 +3%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $9 $0 +2%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Over $200M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-01 House seat? Jun 17 $52 −$1 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? Jun 17 $150 −$5 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -23%
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -17%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat? Jun 17 $92 −$2 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the NE-03 House seat? Jun 17 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? Jun 17 $242 −$4 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? Jun 16 $120 −$3 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? Jun 16 $162 −$5 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat? Jun 16 $122 −$4 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat? Jun 16 $91 −$2 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat? Jun 16 $118 −$3 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -31%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat? Jun 16 $144 −$7 -5%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-01 House seat? Jun 16 $26 −$4 -14%
Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the Republican Party win the RI-01 House seat? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Republican Party win the IL-11 House seat? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat? Jun 16 $55 −$3 -6%
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-03 House seat? Jun 16 $56 −$2 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-09 House seat? Jun 16 $97 −$2 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the CT-04 House seat? Jun 16 $54 −$3 -5%
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-11 House seat? Jun 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-04 House seat? Jun 16 $53 −$2 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat? Jun 16 $97 −$2 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-05 House seat? Jun 16 $144 −$2 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat? Jun 16 $105 −$3 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat? Jun 16 $176 −$5 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-30 House seat? Jun 16 $36 −$2 -6%
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat? Jun 16 $184 −$5 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-05 House seat? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the Republican Party win the NH-01 House seat? Jun 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat? Jun 16 $282 −$18 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-01 House seat? SELL No 94¢ $0 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-01 House seat? SELL No 94¢ $1 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-01 House seat? BUY No 96¢ $1 2h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? SELL No 96¢ $43 3h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? BUY No 96¢ $43 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? SELL No 4¢ $2 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? SELL No 7¢ $2 4h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? BUY No 8¢ $2 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat? BUY No 5¢ $2 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? SELL No 8¢ $4 4h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-21 House seat? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4h
Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat? BUY No 8¢ $4 4h
Will the Republican Party win the NE-03 House seat? SELL No 5¢ $2 5h
Will the Republican Party win the NE-03 House seat? BUY No 6¢ $3 5h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 5h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? SELL No 93¢ $46 5h
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 5h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat? BUY No 94¢ $47 5h
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 7h
Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 7h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? BUY No 31¢ $15 7h
Will the Republican Party win the FL-15 House seat? BUY No 31¢ $16 7h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat? SELL No 84¢ $4 8h
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat? BUY No 84¢ $4 8h
Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 8h
Will the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat? SELL No 95¢ $48 8h
Will the Republican Party win the CA-07 House seat? SELL No 96¢ $48 8h
Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.63 · official $167.13 (match) · 3500 history records