trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | +9.1% | -1.3% | 40% | 40% | -9.5% |
| all | 22 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 45% | 18% | -10.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 18% | -10.0% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 14% | -18.6% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 9% | -26.4% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 5% | -33.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $80 | $80 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | May 08 | $400 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 08 | $600 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? | May 08 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? | May 06 | $3 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Mar 24 | $80 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 24 | $140 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Mar 23 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Feb 19 | $156 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Mi | Feb 17 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025? | Jan 23 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will any AI reach $50k in Alpha Arena AI trading competition? | Dec 02 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Apple announces iPhone assembly in the U.S. before September? | Sep 01 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on May 27? | May 26 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Cannonier vs. Rodrigues | May 24 | $4 | −$3 | -68% |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31? | May 24 | $3 | +$1 | +43% |
| Matt Gaetz Ethics Report made public in 2024? | Jan 20 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? | Dec 20 | $236 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane | Dec 18 | $14 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will a Democrat win Illinois Presidential Election? | Oct 15 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| Candidates seated at ABC debate? | Oct 15 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | Aug 28 | $543 | −$9 | -2% |