Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae8…6861 other 87 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,313 (-2%) realized −$1,314 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$990per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$43
politics 37% −$42
sports 8% −$1,205
crypto 2% +$6
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$41
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 86 -4.8% -13.9% 12% 5% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 5% -11.0%
10% -22.1% 3% -19.5%
15% -29.7% 3% -27.3%
20% -36.5% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,320) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$664
Realized−$1,314
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage116d
Avg bet$990
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $663 $664 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2,581 −$4 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,944 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,123 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,363 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,804 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,011 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $320 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 04 $525 +$1 +0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $524 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $533 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $765 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,862 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,359 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,947 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $2,223 −$3 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $740 +$3 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $2,178 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,111 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,224 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,087 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,287 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,322 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 21m
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $410 26h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $410 27h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $392 29h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $393 32h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $411 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $411 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $663 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $976 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $978 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,122 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,123 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,155 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,157 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,079 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $889 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $891 13d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,161 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,163 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,186 15d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,224 15d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,225 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,220 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,221 19d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,318 20d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 20d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,315 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.16 · official $664.16 (match) · 269 history records