Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae8…23de world 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 265d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
politics 26% +$1
sports 13% $0
other 11% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.2% +4.2% 20% 20% -9.1%
≤30d 21 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 33 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 9% -9.6%
all 60 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

265d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage265d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $96 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $81 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $82 −$2 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $154 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $52 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $92 +$5 +5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $90 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $82 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $385 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $577 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 16 $635 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $636 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $578 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $229 $0 +0%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Mar 10 $229 $0 +0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 10 $208 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $209 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 07 $15 $0 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $1 $0 -29%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $3 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 01 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $87 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $87 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $79 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $79 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $31 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $84 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $78 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $81 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $64 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $18 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $89 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $81 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.15 · official $78.58 (match) · 213 history records