Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6A 0x6ae6…2bdd sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$6
other 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.6% +20.9% 67% 33% -0.9%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 22% -5.0%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 22% -5.0%
all 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 22% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 22% -5.0%
10% -17.9% 22% -14.1%
15% -25.9% 22% -22.4%
20% -33.1% 22% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $2 +$4 +234%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $40 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 +$4 +58%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $18 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 50m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 50m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 51m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 90¢ $40 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $8 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $18 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $18 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 77¢ $8 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 5¢ $2 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 98¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $6.05 (match) · 21 history records