Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ae4…d4ce world 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,188 (-19%) realized −$5,316 · open +$128
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%20W / 68L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$353
world 38% +$2,787
culture 7% −$505
politics 5% +$99
economics 3% +$595
tech 2% −$172
sports 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.4% +8.1% 75% 50% +14.0%
≤30d 10 +4.6% -5.3% 40% 30% +11.4%
≤90d 54 +44.7% +30.9% 24% 17% +1.7%
all 88 +24.2% +12.4% 23% 12% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.4% 12% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.6% 11% -14.8%
15% -8.2% 9% -23.0%
20% -17.2% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$43 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$4,532
Realized−$5,316
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses20 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions24
Markets (closed)88 / 106
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$262
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 90¢ $650 $2,078 +$1,429 (+220%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 98¢ $379 $466 +$87 (+23%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $192 $292 +$100 (+52%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $165 $277 +$112 (+68%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 34¢ 81¢ $105 $249 +$145 (+138%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $213 $244 +$31 (+15%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $190 $196 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 29¢ 10¢ $536 $175 −$361 (-67%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $127 $168 +$41 (+32%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $70 $67 −$2 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $60 −$5 (-7%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ $81 $60 −$21 (-26%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $47 $47 +$1 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $32 $29 −$4 (-11%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 17¢ 22¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13 $9 −$4 (-28%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No 33¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 22 $1,022 −$1,029 -101%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $1,567 +$907 +58%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 19 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 17 $2,058 +$397 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,264 −$25 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$28 +29%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $88 −$3 -3%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $122 −$6 -5%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $173 −$8 -4%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 28 $63 −$23 -36%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 18 $289 −$195 -68%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 18 $6 $0 -2%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? May 16 $137 −$14 -10%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $206 +$463 +225%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 15 $238 −$130 -55%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 14 $135 −$3 -2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $1,351 +$90 +7%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 13 $168 −$5 -3%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 May 13 $19 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $248 +$400 +162%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 11 $426 −$3 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 10 $20 +$1,384 +6908%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $69 −$3 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 08 $77 −$6 -7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? May 06 $5 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 05 $114 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $22 −$4 -20%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $271 −$13 -5%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $1,010 +$34 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $76 −$19 -25%
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Apr 24 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Apr 14 $5 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $358 −$47 -13%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $267 −$172 -64%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $857 −$641 -75%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $229 +$265 +116%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $137 +$511 +373%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 07 $79 −$2 -3%
Will SpaceX file for an IPO by April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 02 $127 −$11 -8%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 01 $39 −$6 -16%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Apr 01 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $19 −$8 -40%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $223 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 31 $7 −$2 -33%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 30 $6,369 +$233 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $12 25m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $72 29m
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $9 43m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $52 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $11 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 3h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $10 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $12 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $8 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $10 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $38 4h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $33 5h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $35 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No $8 6h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $7 16h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $12 17h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $16 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,532.11 · official $4,532.32 (match) · 3500 history records