Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6ae0…243d crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$959 (+13%) realized +$1,145 · open −$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 43L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$514
7 days+$1,034
14 days+$838
30 days+$951
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% −$296
other 17% +$635
world 17% +$721
crypto 14% −$357
sports 7% +$58
weather 0% −$27
politics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +80.6% +63.4% 62% 62% +25.9%
≤30d 57 +1.3% -8.3% 35% 28% +6.0%
≤90d 63 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 25% +4.9%
all 63 -5.5% -14.5% 32% 25% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 25% +4.9%
10% -22.7% 19% -5.1%
15% -30.2% 17% -14.3%
20% -37.0% 16% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$34 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,729
Realized+$1,145
Unrealized−$186
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)63 / 72
History coverage37d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Yes 92¢ 84¢ $1,109 $1,021 −$89 (-8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $373 $370 −$4 (-1%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 38¢ $346 $237 −$109 (-31%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 22¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $500 +$514 +103%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $5 +$36 +721%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $25 −$16 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $558 +$308 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $540 +$58 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $961 +$184 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$9 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $22 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 +$39 +738%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $96 −$96 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 06 $24 −$24 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $95 +$115 +122%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 63 and 64 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61 and 62 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 63 million views on day 6 Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $109 −$86 -79%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 04 $91 +$10 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $29 +$80 +276%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $40 +$15 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $172 −$172 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 1? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $305 +$49 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $471 −$435 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $10 −$10 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 29 $2 −$2 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $17 −$16 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $93 −$77 -82%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $625 +$141 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $133 +$753 +568%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $5 −$5 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $275 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 91¢ $280 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $564 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $375 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,014 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $500 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 11¢ $41 2d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY Yes 55¢ $348 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $20 2d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $867 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $599 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $540 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $558 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $46 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,145 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $17 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,729.42 · official $1,729.42 (match) · 190 history records