Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6adf…b216 crypto 1687 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-2%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%800W / 728L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days+$525
14 days+$1,160
30 days+$1,459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$1,623
weather 9% −$276
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 290 +8.3% -2.0% 61% 61% +5.4%
≤30d 1098 +13.0% +2.3% 62% 62% +4.1%
≤90d 1528 +7.2% -3.0% 52% 52% -0.2%
all 1528 +7.2% -3.0% 52% 52% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.0% 52% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.3% 52% -9.8%
15% -20.8% 52% -18.5%
20% -28.5% 48% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses800 / 728
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1528 / 1687
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1528 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 19? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 21? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 18 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 21? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 19 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 22? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 20? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 22? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on April 17 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$14 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records