Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:06:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6A 0x6adf…4f5b other 337 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,735 (+3%) realized +$9,893 · open −$1,158
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%171W / 160L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$821per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$529est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$5,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,010
7 days−$2,303
14 days−$2,176
30 days−$2,966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$1,549
sports 22% +$8,971
world 5% −$64
crypto 1% +$496
politics 0% −$255
economics 0% −$28
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -17.6% -25.4% 54% 54% -16.7%
≤30d 75 -12.7% -21.0% 49% 45% -13.0%
≤90d 172 -5.3% -14.3% 53% 47% -6.4%
all 331 -13.4% -21.7% 52% 45% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 45% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 37% -15.5%
15% -36.0% 30% -23.7%
20% -42.3% 22% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,035) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$403 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$5,965
Realized+$9,893
Unrealized−$1,158
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses171 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$529
Open positions6
Markets (closed)331 / 337
History coverage163d
Avg bet$821
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 74¢ $3,120 $2,980 −$140 (-4%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 44¢ $2,189 $1,622 −$567 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $880 $565 −$315 (-36%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 46¢ 40¢ $460 $405 −$55 (-12%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 26¢ 23¢ $265 $228 −$36 (-14%)
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 21¢ 16¢ $210 $165 −$45 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $731 −$731 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $264 +$236 +90%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,010 +$363 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,962 +$1,212 +31%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $650 +$350 +54%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3,022 +$978 +32%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,059 +$741 +36%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,318 +$382 +29%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,483 +$338 +23%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,135 +$865 +76%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $2,927 −$2,927 -100%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $99 −$37 -37%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1,431 +$326 +23%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $825 −$727 -88%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $286 −$286 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $494 −$494 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,192 +$308 +26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $555 +$445 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $738 +$315 +43%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $1,074 −$1,074 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $884 −$884 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $427 +$388 +91%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,274 −$8 -1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,117 −$3,117 -100%
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 18 $335 +$236 +70%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $791 +$709 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,287 +$2,713 +119%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $840 −$782 -93%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $851 −$851 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,588 −$2,588 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,462 +$1,538 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $221 +$48 +22%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,144 +$456 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,180 +$820 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,075 +$112 +10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $512 −$512 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,280 +$720 +56%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $440 −$196 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,070 −$2,070 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,800 +$496 +28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $522 +$468 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2,178 +$1,322 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $3,141 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $215 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $467 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,822 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $118 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $98 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $400 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $10 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $5 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $194 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $302 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $2,223 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $3,867 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $17 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $12 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 21h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $100 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $264 23h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $3 23h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,000 23h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,010 23h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $482 25h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 25h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $65 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,965.42 · official $6,489.92 · 2548 history records