Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ada…5e23 weather 1378 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 54d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized +$34 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate93%1278W / 90L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$77
weather 45% +$47
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 3% -9.7%
≤30d 460 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 1368 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 4% -8.0%
all 1368 -0.0% -9.5% 93% 4% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 4% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 2% -16.8%
15% -26.1% 1% -24.8%
20% -33.3% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1278 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1368 / 1378
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 30¢ 50¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 28¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+78%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-95%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-95%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-98%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$7 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.40 · official $13.40 (match) · 3500 history records