Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ad8…637b
sports · 96 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$8,157 +59%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,009 · open −$337
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$1,123
Realized+$8,009
Unrealized−$337
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses39 / 52
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage13d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 5 History 91 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7,237
7 days+$7,330
14 days+$8,009
30 days+$8,009
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1,250 $918 −$332 (-27%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Over 95¢ 83¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,848 +$7,241 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $25 −$20 -81%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$12 -50%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $25 −$1 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $25 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$4 +46%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $51 +$58 +114%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $45 +$55 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $44 +$40 +90%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? Jun 09 $205 −$57 -28%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $30 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 7? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $51 +$53 +105%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $30 +$36 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $30 +$25 +83%
USDE depeg by December 31? Jun 08 $1 $0 -41%
USD1 depeg by December 31? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $169 −$31 -18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$267 +285%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T? Jun 07 $27 −$25 -92%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.00T and 2.25T? Jun 07 $48 −$41 -86%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 2.25T and 2.50T? Jun 07 $27 −$20 -73%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $30 −$27 -91%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $7 −$2 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $1 $0 -2%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 −$2 -32%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$1 -17%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $177 −$93 -53%
Will BNB dip to $500 in June? Jun 07 $343 −$149 -43%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -50%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$6,672
crypto 16% +$236
politics 6% +$522
sports 5% +$325
other 4% +$33
tech 2% −$112
finance 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 37m
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 95¢ $50 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,000 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $3 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $1,549 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $73 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $270 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $20 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1,820 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $3,000 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $10 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes $1,000 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5,294 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $4,704 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $400 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 11¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 10¢ $12 2d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 18¢ $24 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 70¢ $24 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 59¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 39% 29% +144.6%
≤30d 91 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 31% +76.5%
≤90d 91 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 31% +76.5%
all 91 -2.5% -11.8% 43% 31% +76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 31% +76.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 23% +59.6%
15% -27.9% 21% +44.2%
20% -35.0% 20% +30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.58 · official $1,122.58 (match) · 374 history records