Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ad7…347a
weather · 1231 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,666 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,614 · open +$52
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$789
Realized+$1,614
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses304 / 905
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions23
Markets (closed)1209 / 1231
History coverage36d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 23 History 1209 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$23
14 days+$1,091
30 days+$1,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $37 $112 +$75 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? No 84¢ 100¢ $80 $95 +$15 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 85¢ 100¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? No 86¢ 100¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 9? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $30 $45 +$15 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 7¢ 100¢ $3 $40 +$37 (+1288%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $7 $34 +$27 (+417%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 10? No 80¢ 100¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $5 $27 +$22 (+406%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 9? No 84¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $4 $22 +$19 (+533%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Yes 11¢ 23¢ $5 $12 +$6 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $2 $11 +$10 (+645%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? No 89¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+281%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 34¢ $3 $9 +$7 (+245%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Yes 11¢ 100¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+824%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 25¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+195%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 66¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+78%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$37 +574%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $81 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $91 +$21 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $39 −$26 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 +$37 +1231%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$24 +718%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$14 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$3 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$22 +391%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 97% +$1,743
other 3% −$70
politics 0% +$17
crypto 0% +$13
sports 0% −$16
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 65¢ $93 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 72¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +3.4% -6.4% 21% 17% -9.0%
≤30d 975 -8.6% -17.3% 25% 20% -8.6%
≤90d 1209 -12.3% -20.7% 25% 19% -8.0%
all 1209 -12.3% -20.7% 25% 19% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 19% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 16% -16.8%
15% -35.2% 14% -24.8%
20% -41.6% 12% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $788.65 · official $784.24 (match) · 3500 history records