Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ad7…6627 crypto 1421 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$66 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%733W / 687L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$58
14 days−$162
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 -4.0% -13.2% 50% 50% -14.8%
≤30d 721 -3.0% -12.2% 52% 51% -11.5%
≤90d 1420 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 49% -10.0%
all 1420 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 49% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 49% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 47% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 46% -26.5%
20% -36.2% 44% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses733 / 687
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1420 / 1421
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.09 (match) · 3500 history records