Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ad4…d3ff crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39,153 (-36%) realized −$39,153 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,133per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39,153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 42% -41.9%
≤30d 12 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 42% -41.9%
≤90d 12 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 42% -41.9%
all 12 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 42% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 42% -41.9%
10% -35.6% 42% -47.5%
15% ← realistic here -41.8% 17% -52.5%
20% -47.5% 0% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,858 vs −$8,384 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39,153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9,133
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $12,482 −$12,087 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $23,793 −$23,793 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $25,333 +$6,385 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $7,069 −$6,900 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $6,915 +$210 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5,484 +$1,457 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $3,981 +$1,503 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $2,346 +$853 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $2,341 +$740 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5,819 −$5,515 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $11,131 −$1,784 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $2,900 −$222 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $490 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3,811 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4,107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1,267 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $864 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1,635 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $395 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11,830 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4,837 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2,289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1,612 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $958 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $697 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $399 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1,171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17,483 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14,234 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4,352 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $825 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1,409 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $992 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3,812 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2,313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2,355 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2,359 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1,582 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1,222 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $996 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $706 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records