Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ad2…395a sports 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%31W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$98
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$116
other 11% +$90
politics 4% −$38
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 45% -16.9%
≤30d 56 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 50% -11.8%
≤90d 56 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 50% -11.8%
all 56 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 50% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 50% -11.8%
10% -14.4% 39% -20.2%
15% -22.7% 34% -27.9%
20% -30.3% 21% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses31 / 25
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage9d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $70 +$25 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $57 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $47 +$11 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $33 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $76 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $38 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $28 +$11 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $37 −$36 -99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $2 +$2 +99%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $13 −$11 -82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $33 −$11 -32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 −$6 -36%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $29 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$9 +43%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $35 −$25 -71%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $17 +$18 +102%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $33 −$3 -10%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $19 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$33 +226%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $12 −$8 -68%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $17 +$6 +36%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $14 −$5 -36%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $43 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$9 +130%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$23 +316%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $9 +$16 +184%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$23 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $14 +$9 +61%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$19 -48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$6 +48%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $27 +$7 +25%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $75 +$46 +62%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $47 −$43 -93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $37 +$38 +101%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $29 +$8 +28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$22 -43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $45 +$7 +15%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $28 +$17 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 34m
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $70 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 58¢ $58 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $47 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 31¢ $47 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $50 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 24¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 50¢ $33 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $35 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff SELL K27 64¢ $35 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 67¢ $38 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 48¢ $37 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $39 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $86 10h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $28 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $37 11h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea SELL 9z Team 99¢ $5 27h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea BUY 9z Team 49¢ $2 28h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner SELL OXEN 9¢ $2 28h
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 48¢ $13 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $13 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 83¢ $11 29h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 19¢ $2 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 74¢ $7 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 26¢ $7 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 50¢ $14 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $14 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records