Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6A 0x6acd…2fa7 other 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 749d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$900 (-5%) realized −$870 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%76W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$402
14 days+$386
30 days+$630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1,002
crypto 17% −$594
sports 13% +$339
world 8% +$39
politics 5% +$176
culture 2% +$2
economics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.3% -2.0% 64% 64% +20.6%
≤30d 45 +37.1% +24.1% 51% 49% +9.3%
≤90d 45 +37.1% +24.1% 51% 49% +9.3%
all 177 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 28% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 28% -14.3%
10% -27.9% 25% -22.5%
15% -34.8% 23% -30.0%
20% -41.2% 20% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$49 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

749d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized−$870
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses76 / 101
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions10
Markets (closed)177 / 189
History coverage749d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $175 $202 +$27 (+15%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $39 $59 +$20 (+51%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 26¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+82%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-31%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 6¢ $100 $14 −$86 (-86%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $144 +$71 +49%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $75 +$44 +60%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $93 −$92 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $154 +$113 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$105 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $143 −$141 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $172 +$115 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $245 −$242 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $173 −$171 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$88 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $42 +$186 +442%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $61 +$553 +912%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $221 −$218 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $137 +$144 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $118 −$116 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$79 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$18 +44%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$8 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$11 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$22 +404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $228 +$221 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 10 $54 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 10 $52 +$72 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $145 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 8¢ $18 4h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $119 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $75 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $256 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $151 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $42 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $41 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $552.41 · official $552.41 (match) · 387 history records