Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6acd…dcc1 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-42%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$6
other 40% −$8
crypto 17% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-74.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -67.5%
≤30d 6 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -67.5%
≤90d 6 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -67.5%
all 6 -71.6% -74.3% 17% 17% -67.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.3% 17% -67.5%
10% -76.8% 17% -70.6%
15% -79.0% 17% -73.5%
20% -81.1% 17% -76.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 55m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 58¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.40 · official $12.40 (match) · 9 history records