Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6aca…abb1 other 245 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 234L
Whale WR5%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$15
14 days−$29
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$9
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 5% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)5%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage132d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $553 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $202 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $467 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $544 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $160 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $223 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $64 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $373 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $450 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $430 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $397 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $143 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $144 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $141 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 7m
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 8h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 18h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 19h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 23h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 25h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 27h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 31h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 33h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 37h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 39h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1333 history records