Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:55:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ac6…82a6
other · 949 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,426 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,311 · open −$106
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53
Realized−$5,311
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses181 / 749
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions19
Markets (closed)930 / 949
History coverage410d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 19 History 930 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$246
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $83 $10 −$73 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 13¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+3075%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $5 +$5 (+892%)
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $25 $4 −$22 (-85%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $17 $2 −$15 (-89%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -99%
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Warsh say "Federal Reserve" 10+ times during swearing-in? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions ev Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 03 $72 −$50 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 03 $3 +$8 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1760-1839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1400-1439 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Loïs Boisson win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in May 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will either Tate brother be arrested by June 30? May 31 $4 −$2 -45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$5,264
sports 11% −$329
economics 5% +$222
crypto 4% −$147
politics 3% +$156
finance 3% +$43
world 1% +$81
culture 1% −$89
tech 1% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $20 1h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 16h
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 10d
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 12d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13d
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13d
Will either Tate brother be arrested by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13d
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 13d
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 17d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 78 -52.0% -56.6% 6% 6% -61.2%
≤90d 400 -13.9% -22.1% 19% 16% -14.2%
all 930 -26.9% -33.9% 19% 17% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 17% -41.9%
10% -40.2% 15% -47.4%
15% -46.0% 13% -52.5%
20% -51.3% 11% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.90 · official $52.90 (match) · 3500 history records