Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:22:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ac3…1347 other 520 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$63 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%265W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$314
7 days−$208
14 days−$69
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$194
other 38% −$101
tech 4% +$97
crypto 3% +$25
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$4
economics 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -32.8% -39.2% 56% 41% -18.5%
≤30d 95 -16.2% -24.2% 52% 46% -16.7%
≤90d 297 -0.1% -9.7% 56% 40% -10.9%
all 501 -1.0% -10.5% 53% 37% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 37% -11.0%
10% -19.0% 29% -19.5%
15% -26.9% 25% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses265 / 236
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions19
Markets (closed)501 / 520
History coverage235d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 93¢ 94¢ $92 $93 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $91 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? No 90¢ 90¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? No 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ 39¢ $48 $39 −$9 (-19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $44 $38 −$6 (-12%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $17 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $88 −$88 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $91 +$9 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $130 −$130 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $88 +$12 +13%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $87 +$13 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $86 +$14 +16%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $77 +$23 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 +$20 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $84 +$16 +18%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $86 +$14 +16%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $57 +$43 +76%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $87 −$2 -2%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 +$45 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 08 $84 +$16 +18%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $28 −$28 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Luxembourg win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $31 +$169 +550%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $53 +$47 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY No 85¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 91¢ $91 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY No 89¢ $89 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $92 26h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 88¢ $88 27h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 27h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $29 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 88¢ $88 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY No 90¢ $90 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 95¢ $95 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 87¢ $87 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 86¢ $86 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 88¢ $87 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.74 · official $720.74 (match) · 1147 history records