Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:05:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ac3…3c8b sports 501 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$484 (-3%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate87%438W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$316
other 27% −$218
weather 4% +$5
politics 1% +$24
world 1% +$14
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -9.1% -17.8% 86% 14% -15.8%
≤30d 14 -9.1% -17.8% 86% 14% -15.8%
≤90d 231 -18.6% -26.4% 75% 18% -29.4%
all 501 -2.8% -12.0% 87% 27% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 27% -12.6%
10% -20.4% 11% -21.0%
15% -28.1% 4% -28.6%
20% -35.2% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$28 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses438 / 63
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)501 / 501
History coverage173d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 501 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Resni.ca (Res) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? Jun 15 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna Apr 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano Apr 16 $18 +$3 +14%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Apr 16 $31 +$7 +24%
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi Apr 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund Apr 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 15 $20 +$1 +6%
Oeiras 3: Veronika Erjavec vs Rebecca Sramkova Apr 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Tatjana Maria vs Elsa Jacquemot Apr 15 $31 +$14 +45%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Paula Badosa Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca Apr 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 15? Apr 15 $30 $0 +1%
Oeiras 3: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tiago Pereira Apr 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 14? Apr 14 $20 $0 +1%
Oeiras 3: Veronika Erjavec vs Milana Ivantsiv Apr 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Paris-Roubaix Hauts-de-France? Apr 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 13 $48 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 13? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 13 $20 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 13 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $20 +$2 +9%
BMW Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Marko Topo Apr 12 $24 $0 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12? Apr 12 $20 $0 +0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 12 $20 $0 +1%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Barcelona Open, Qualification: Max Alcala Gurri vs Alexandre Muller Apr 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 100¢ $20 1h
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day SELL Up 100¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $50 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $41 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 9h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 82¢ $20 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 10h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $40 11h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli SELL Facundo Acosta 100¢ $26 14h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Facundo Acosta 97¢ $25 14h
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day BUY Up 100¢ $30 14h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $30 14h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 98¢ $20 14h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 98¢ $100 14h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 97¢ $30 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 16h
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 60d
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna SELL Maccabi Tel Aviv $0 60d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano SELL Olympiacos B.C. 100¢ $21 60d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olympiacos B.C. 87¢ $18 60d
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Virtus Bologna BUY Maccabi Tel Aviv 75¢ $20 60d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider SELL Elena Rybakina 100¢ $38 60d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider BUY Elena Rybakina 80¢ $31 60d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund SELL Iga Swiatek 100¢ $31 61d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $21 61d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL Yes 89¢ $21 61d
BMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 98¢ $44 61d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Tatjana Maria vs Elsa Jacquemot SELL Tatjana Maria 100¢ $44 61d
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Tatjana Maria vs Elsa Jacquemot BUY Tatjana Maria 68¢ $31 61d
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 100¢ $31 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1041 history records