Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6A
0x6ac0…55f3
world · 393 markets active 3d ago
2.5score
−$19,083 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7,834 · open −$10,916
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,319
Realized−$7,834
Unrealized−$10,916
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses173 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)34%
Est. fees paid−$575
Open positions3
Markets (closed)390 / 393
History coverage161d
Avg bet$859
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 3 History 390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8,835
14 days−$3,888
30 days−$3,664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 72¢ 56¢ $26,578 $20,710 −$5,868 (-22%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 55¢ 38¢ $4,933 $3,364 −$1,570 (-32%)
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $6,724 $3,245 −$3,478 (-52%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Leo Pereira be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? No 42¢ 0¢ $134 $0 −$134 (-100%)
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $709 $0 −$709 (-100%)
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $630 $0 −$630 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $980 $0 −$980 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,783 −$203 -11%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 09 $1,875 −$801 -43%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $5,404 −$980 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6,876 −$1,534 -22%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 +$5 +5%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $413 −$209 -50%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 09 $1,689 −$125 -7%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $375 −$45 -12%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 08 $155 +$67 +43%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 08 $559 +$84 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 08 $25,515 −$633 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $248 +$104 +42%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,009 −$1,007 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $4,438 −$1,001 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 07 $5,550 +$269 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $18,628 +$802 +4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $591 −$37 -6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $506 −$81 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1,639 −$735 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $7,662 −$1,436 -19%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 06 $721 −$709 -98%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 06 $639 −$630 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 06 $1,573 −$46 -3%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 05 $701 +$47 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $1,200 −$100 -8%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 04 $5,697 +$1,036 +18%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $7,356 +$820 +11%
Will Maximilian Mittelstädt be included in Germany's official 2026 Wor Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? Jun 01 $153 −$92 -60%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,231 +$8,894 +210%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $5,374 −$92 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $8,330 −$3,392 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $14,108 −$2,026 -14%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 27 $9,064 −$421 -5%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,269 −$111 -3%
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary electio May 27 $132 −$12 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,349 −$800 -59%
Kash Patel out by June 30? May 26 $556 +$59 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 26 $4,857 +$68 +1%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 24 $832 −$72 -9%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 24 $1,481 +$69 +5%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $300 +$27 +9%
US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel? May 24 $303 +$69 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $1,566 +$33 +2%
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? May 23 $60 −$4 -7%
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 23 $257 −$56 -22%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $909 −$62 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $1,860 −$599 -32%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,009 −$45 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $822 −$203 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% −$21,073
tech 26% −$7,254
politics 12% −$4,100
other 10% +$1,104
sports 9% +$3,736
crypto 2% +$8,800
economics 0% +$25
finance 0% +$12
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $224 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $221 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $970 2d
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 36¢ $960 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 55¢ $3,829 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3,330 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $511 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $192 2d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 24¢ $108 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $84 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $983 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $180 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $803 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,156 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $400 2d
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL No 70¢ $1,556 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $437 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $438 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $330 3d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 16¢ $330 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $875 3d
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? SELL No 86¢ $222 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $643 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 74¢ $8,384 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 81¢ $8,389 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 76¢ $3,556 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL No 87¢ $3,560 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 75¢ $353 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 78¢ $353 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1,015 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -21.4% -28.8% 29% 12% -18.0%
≤30d 71 -7.2% -16.1% 35% 21% -10.5%
≤90d 209 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 24% -11.5%
all 390 +4.6% -5.4% 44% 30% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 30% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 19% -20.0%
15% -22.7% 13% -27.7%
20% -30.3% 7% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,319.07 · official $27,322.74 (match) · 2033 history records