Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6A 0x6abd…94ec sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,348 (-44%) realized −$1,348 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,272
7 days−$1,272
14 days−$1,272
30 days−$1,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$1,400
sports 14% +$44
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 50% -75.7%
≤30d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 50% -75.7%
≤90d 10 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 50% -75.7%
all 14 -10.6% -19.1% 57% 36% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 36% -50.2%
10% -26.9% 36% -54.9%
15% -33.9% 36% -59.3%
20% -40.4% 36% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$260 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage155d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $41 −$28 -69%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $40 +$22 +54%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$20 +100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$20 +101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 20 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 20 $405 −$405 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? Jun 20 $706 −$706 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $21 +$19 +88%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $162 +$109 +67%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $700 +$6 +1%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $382 +$3 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $102 −$97 -95%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $99 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 18¢ $13 24m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $41 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $62 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $41 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $6 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $16 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $77 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $271 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $162 12h
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $706 147d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $706 147d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $700 147d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $385 153d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 99¢ $382 153d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $118 153d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $405 153d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $200 154d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 154d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes $5 154d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $102 154d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 154d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $99 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records