Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:54:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6abb…8f63 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$16
sports 32% +$25
crypto 9% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 35% -13.8%
≤30d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 35% -13.8%
≤90d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 35% -13.8%
all 37 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 35% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 24% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 19% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 8% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+170%)
Exact Score: Belarus 2 - 0 Burkina Faso? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$33 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$9 +28%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$19 +186%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$6 +13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 +$7 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$3 -31%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $5 $0 -4%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$4 -75%
Will Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -78%
Exact Score: Belarus 2 - 0 Burkina Faso? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 $0 +2%
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 09 $11 −$3 -31%
Exact Score: Tajikistan 1 - 1 India? Jun 09 $9 +$5 +48%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$3 -89%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $28 −$8 -30%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Spread: Cambodia (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Cambodia 2 - 0 Hong Kong SAR? Jun 09 $11 +$8 +74%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 09 $48 +$10 +22%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Cambodia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -56%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 84¢ $22 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 77¢ $23 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $37 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $0 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 18h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $9 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records