Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6abb…718f weather 1517 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$331 (-13%) realized +$303 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%431W / 794L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day69.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$191
14 days+$261
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$363
crypto 11% −$2
other 9% +$43
sports 1% −$8
economics 1% +$2
tech 1% −$10
politics 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 +29.7% +17.4% 40% 40% +23.4%
≤30d 631 +26.4% +14.4% 43% 32% +9.3%
≤90d 1225 +10.8% +0.2% 35% 29% -2.7%
all 1225 +10.8% +0.2% 35% 29% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.2% 29% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.4% 27% -12.0%
15% -18.1% 26% -20.5%
20% -26.1% 25% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$303
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses431 / 794
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions40
Markets (closed)1225 / 1517
History coverage48d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day69.8
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 1225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+137%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 32¢ 88¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+177%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 83¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+207%)
Over $140B wagered on US sports betting in 2026? No 70¢ 38¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Over $160B wagered on US sports betting in 2026? No 40¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 26¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+281%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 45¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 42¢ 5¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Jason Cherry win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 28? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C or below on April 27 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on April 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on April 24 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or below on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on April 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on April 25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on April 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on April 28? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 24 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on April 25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 82°F or higher on April 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 11°C or below on April 28 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on April Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 25? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 47°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 25? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on April 19? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on April 29? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -334%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on April 27? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 29? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on April 28? Jun 14 $0 +$4 +37549%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on Apri Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 31°F or below on April 28? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C or below on April 28? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on April 28 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 25? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on April 25? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on April 25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on April 25 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C or below on April 25 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL Yes 99¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.31 · official $20.31 (match) · 3500 history records