Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6A 0x6aba…db99 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,292 (-36%) realized −$1,042 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$55
14 days−$1,033
30 days−$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$902
other 42% −$626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-61.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.4% -36.1% 50% 50% -5.4%
≤30d 7 -56.9% -61.0% 29% 29% -53.6%
≤90d 7 -56.9% -61.0% 29% 29% -53.6%
all 7 -56.9% -61.0% 29% 29% -53.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.0% 29% -53.6%
10% -64.7% 14% -58.0%
15% -68.1% 14% -62.1%
20% -71.3% 14% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$326 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$1,042
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage22d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $269 $267 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 0¢ $250 $2 −$248 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $475 +$51 +11%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $254 −$250 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $425 +$304 +72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,164 −$708 -61%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $473 −$380 -80%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $250 −$245 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $271 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $526 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $475 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $254 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $6 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $8 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $20 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $48 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $115 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $227 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $716 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 39¢ $421 8d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $448 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 10¢ $92 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $473 9d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $250 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.56 · official $268.60 (match) · 20 history records