Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab8…248e sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$2
other 23% −$2
politics 19% −$1
crypto 9% −$7
economics 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 159 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 150
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage170d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $28 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $25 $0 -1%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $198 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $60 $0 -1%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $68 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Czech Republic win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Wi Feb 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $35 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 12d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $28 12d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $26 20d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $27 20d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 95¢ $25 28d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $25 28d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $22 39d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $22 39d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $30 128d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $30 128d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 128d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 128d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $30 128d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $30 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $34 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $34 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $29 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $30 128d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $27 128d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $27 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $28 128d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $28 128d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $28 128d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $28 128d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $27 128d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $27 128d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $29 128d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $30 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.24 · official $32.24 (match) · 508 history records