Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6A 0x6ab8…e927 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+9%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day81.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$10
other 16% +$16
sports 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 38% -5.7%
≤30d 32 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 38% -5.7%
≤90d 32 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 38% -5.7%
all 32 +9.2% -1.2% 41% 38% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 38% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 28% -14.7%
15% -19.3% 25% -23.0%
20% -27.2% 16% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day81.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$12 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $0 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$29 +548%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 25m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 26m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 39m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.80 · official $7.80 (match) · 91 history records